Sacramento Kings v Oklahoma City Thunder Carmelo Anthony over 20.5 points

Basketball - USA: NBA - 08 Nov 03:10

Although I do think the Thunder win this game, I'm more inclined to go with this rather than the spread. Thunder have lost their last two games, albeit against much tougher opposition, and have only one days rest compared to the kings 3.

The projected spread doesn't offer a good value to risk ratio for me but this does at evens. Carmelo Anthony is currently averaging 20.6 points per game this season but was controversially ejected last night against Portland only 23 minutes in, that being said he scored 15 points in that stint against a very good Portland side which is impressive so you could make a strong argument that this should be 6/8.

Carmelo has been adopted in the power forward role for the thunder this season which at this point in his career seems a perfect fit for him as a "stretch 4" to space the floor and provide perimeter shooting for the most part. Carmelo is averaging a career high in 3 pointers attempted this season with just over 6 a game and his shooting 3.28% from there which isn't great but the Kings have the 28th worst defensive efficiency in the league and have the 29th worst record for defending the 3 point line so I think he'll have a little more success from beyond the arc than normal.

The primary defender tonight against Carmelo will be Zach Randolph and although he was once a very good player, has never played great defence and now in his advancing years at 36 he gets regularly exposed.

Carmelo is one of the best offensive players of his generation and although isn't lightning quick himself I really like him in this match up here. He's still a fantastic isolation player and despite the thunder trying to play more team basketball, Westbrook and George both played 35+ minutes the night before so I have feeling they may go to him more in this game.
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Posted 11 months ago

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