Patriots -7.5 vs New York Jets
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This is where the Jets knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs last year and believe me, they will have had this date circled from the start of the season. It's revenge time.
With both these teams playing in the same division, they are due to meet at least twice. Last season, they split the meetings but the Patriots got beaten 28-21 in the AFC playoff game back in January.
At the moment, the Jets are reeling, having dropped their last 2 matches to fall to 2-2.
New England ran over Miami and San Diego before blowing a huge lead against divisional rivals Buffalo to lose the 65 point goalfest.
No worry, as they bounced straight back with an impressive win at Oakland, where they did more than just pass.
Against Oakland, the Patriots were able to run the ball a lot more, which is encouraging as it shows they are learning and bettering themselves. Their 31-19 win is impressive because those very Raiders recently beat the Jets convincingly, 34-24. Baltimore were the other team to topple the Jets, by a 34-17 score.
New England are lethal in revenge mode. Consider last season. They lost the first game away to the Jets 28-14 and when New York came to visit proceeded to beat up on them to end 45-3 up!
I'm not sure how the Jets can compete in this spot. They have injuries all over the place, and their famous running game is in the toilet.
Against New England they need that, because they are not good enough to get involved in a shootout with Brady and survive.
Brady leads the Patriots offence and has ranked 1st in total yards and passing yards, while the scoring offence table sees them sitting in 3rd place.
The spread was a lot higher but sits at 7.5 at the moment at a very good price at Pinnacle.
I've had some real stinkers on Saturday with late meaningless scores from a bunch of teams I was opposing lose our bets ATS by less than a score. For that reason, that extra 0.5 point is making me uncomfortable.
However, New England will be in revenge mode, which means even when there is a chance for a backdoor cover, they will not sit back with the game safe as they want to beat up on a team they hate.
I'll take the risk and go with the Patriots to cover it as I see a win of at least 10 points here at Foxboro.
Take the New England Patriots -7.5